Batteries seem to be getting smaller and cheaper much faster than many expected. Even experts at Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) have had to revise their own projections for electric vehicles every year.

In 2017, BNEF projected that “the crossover point when electric vehicles will be cheaper upfront than a combustion vehicle”  would be in 2026. However, things have changed since then, meanwhile, the timeframe has narrowed significantly. In 2018 it was projected to be 2024, now, 2019,  BNEF projects the crossover point will be 2022 — just three years away.

EVs are already considered to be superior to gasoline cars as they have faster acceleration, much lower maintenance costs, zero tail-pipe emissions, and a much lower per-mile fueling cost than petrol cars.

Bullard said in a Bloomberg article that the crossover will begin in 2022 for large vehicles in Europe but expects it to quickly expand to smaller vehicles and other parts of the world as battery prices continue to plummet.

Batteries were 57 percent of the cost of a U.S. medium-sized car in 2015, as Bullard notes. Today this number is down to 33 percent and is expected to be just 20 percent of total EV cost by 2025.

With better battery performance and price, EVs are beginning to get further ranges, while the charging time is decreasing rapidly. Superfast chargers can charge an EV in as little as 20 minutes, and new chargers can cut that time in half.

“During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero, equivalent to the current market penetration of flip phones,” Wall Street Journal auto columnist Dan Neil wrote. And so, “a gas-powered vehicle would be too expensive.”

Leave a Reply