Macquarie Research started coverage of Tesla saying shares of the electric automaker can soar more than 70 percent, while giving the company an outperform rating. Tesla’s share rose to their highest on Monday in over a month, after Chief Executive Elon Musk tweeted about a more intense version of the Model 3. Tesla stock US:TSLA gained nearly 5%, which is its largest percentage increase since April 10.
“We view Tesla as a disruptive technology growth company with differentiated products and strong brand presence in the secularly growing and equally disruptive markets of electric vehicles, energy storage, and energy generation,” Macquarie analyst Maynard Um said in a note Monday evening.
“Tesla appears on track for production targets & should be able to achieve profitability” in the second half of this year,” Um said.
Macquarie estimated a price target of $430 a share on Tesla stock, which is $10 higher than what CEO Elon Musk said he would take Tesla private in an infamous tweet. Macquarie’s target price would indicate a 72 percent increase from Monday’s closing price of $250.56 a share. Meanwhile, Tesla’s stock price increased by 4.9 percent in Tuesday trading.
CNBC reports Um’s thesis ultimately relies on Tesla having enough cash “to get over the debt maturity hump.” He said Tesla is capable of pushing through the debt challenges via multiple sources of cash flow, while Macquarie estimates Tesla will receive $500 million to $600 million in revenue from clean energy government credits in the second half of 2018. Cash flow will also rise by boosting Model 3 sales and access to $1.2 billion in unused debt.
Musk claims Tesla does not need to raise more capital, however the analyst said it may be a good idea. “We believe a raise through equity would be beneficial in further strengthening its longer-term outlook as well as providing a cushion in case of any unexpected periods of economic softening.”
Macquarie believes investors need to begin looking at Tesla as a technology company rather than just a traditional auto manufacturer. Um also noted Elon Musk’s recent “unconventional behavior as a CEO,” which might push investors to be “understandably concerned.”
“Musk’s actions and behaviour could adversely impact Tesla’s multiple,” the analyst wrote. But “Musk will continue to be a key part of Tesla in the foreseeable future.”
