The S&P 500 may be preparing to test a new range, similar to the lows of the year that it reached in February – a level as much as 3 percent below current levels. The S&P 500 closed at 2,599 Friday, which is below the psychological 2,600 level, as well as the October low od 2,603. Earlier this week, S&P 500 fell below 2,600, but didn’t close below it until Friday.
The Fed meeting in the upcoming week could be a pivotal point for the market, as it’s expected to increase rates, though also expected to lower its forecast for additional rate hikes and emphasize cautious moves.
“I think traders are waiting for the Fed on Wednesday but they’re waiting to see the action in the first few days of next week. If momentum remains negative and we trade well below 2,600, we could see a test of the 2530, 2550 February low,” Redler said.
He further added that the Fed may be a positive catalyst helping the market find a short term bottom into the end of the year. “The question is where will that short term bottom be,” he said.
Technical strategist at Fundstrat, Robert Sluymer, said he is more worried about how the market navigates the entire range of lows from this year. “I think it’s deeply oversold…More important than the Friday close is how the market reacts to the Fed next week,” he said. “There’s an intraday low at May at 2,600. We’re basically testing the April lows. ..I think we’re down into a range and testing it.”