The Zune Will Fail

A few weeks back I posted a video blog on YouTube and mentioned that I think the Zune will fail. I of course got all sorts of responses from Microsoft lovers, or as I call them “idiots”. My favorite was a guy bashing me for having an opinion at all.

The fact is that the iPod created a space. Much like the way Apple did with personal computers. But this time they have done a great job at continuing to innovate. I have seen Steve Jobs go against his own gut on some key issues that I think will help continue the success. For example, he didn’t want a flash memory based iPod, but he knew that size and cost would force this to stay innovative. He also didn’t want to put video on the iPod, but again he gave in because he knows he has to give the public what they want. He has learned from his past failures. This time I don’t think Apple will just be the innovator, I think they will maintain their market share.

Leander Kahney listed 3 reasons that the Zune won’t kill the iPod. I posted those below. Here is a link to that article.

1. It’s not cool and never will be.

The iPod is streets ahead in the things that really matter: ease of use, aesthetics and — here’s the tough one — cool. The Zune is not cool. You can tell that at a glance. Take the choice of colors. It’ll come in black, white and brown.

Wait a sec — brown? Surely this is some sick joke gone horribly wrong. Or are they trying to rip off LG’s Chocolate phone?

The Zune’s best bet is waiting it out until the iPod becomes passé, which seems unlikely given that Apple is constantly redesigning and refreshing the device.

2. The Zune will be locked down tighter than the queen’s knickers.

The Zune’s interesting features — Wi-Fi sharing and the music subscription plan — will be subject to a strict digital rights management scheme, and given Microsoft’s reputation in this area (PlaysForShit) — I’ll bet the Zune will drive customers to the iPod.

After all, PlaysForSure is such a technical and marketing disaster Microsoft is abandoning it altogether in favor of the Zune, which will attempt to tightly integrate hardware, software and services, just like the iPod.

But whereas Apple’s FairPlay digital rights management scheme seems to be working very well (surprisingly, there aren’t widespread reports of glitches and problems), Microsoft’s penchant for complex and glitchy verification systems bode ill for the device.

3. Wi-Fi song sharing will not catch on in public.

The Zune’s only original feature is Wi-Fi song sharing, which will allow Zune owners to search for others nearby and temporarily trade songs over the air. Traded tunes will be playable up to three times over three days, and can be flagged on the player for later purchase online. Otherwise they disappear.

But while it’s obvious that sharing songs will be fun with friends at school or college, it’s not an activity that will take off in public. It’ll largely be confined to peer groups.

How do I know this? Because that’s what’s happening with iTunes music sharing, which does more or less the same thing with a computer over a network, instead of peer-to-peer.

Think of the typical experience with iTunes at the office or conferences. Instead of finding all kinds of cool new bands, you marvel at the dreadful taste of your co-workers.

Granted, offices and conferences aren’t the best feeding grounds, but where is? There are no hip cafes or bars that I know forging reputations for being good places to hang out and browse other peoples’ music libraries.

Will this happen wirelessly with the Zune? Will teenagers gather at the mall or the park to share tunes, sitting around quietly with their headphones on?

I don’t see it. It will happen at concerts and clubs where like-minded music lovers will share music they already know they like — and it’ll be kinda awkward and nerdy. Remember swapping business cards with your Palm Pilot via infrared?

And while it might be interesting to take a sneak peek at what the thug at the back of the bus is listening to, it won’t be a great strategy for discovering new music. There just won’t be enough Zune users around.

The only place I can think of in the United States where the Zune might be good for browsing others’ music is on an airplane. But will the airlines allow wireless song sharing mid-flight?

Plus, iTunes shows that many people are so self-conscious of their music collections, they will turn off sharing altogether or carefully prune their library to present themselves in the best possible light.

Wi-Fi song sharing will be more about managing your image in public than sharing music.

But of course, for a lot of people, that’s the point: Music-clerk types will show off their bona fides by loading their Zune with obscure indie bands, while the rest of us will be frantically deleting treasured show tunes for fear of looking ridiculous.

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I think I can add something to this. First off, the whole Wi-Fi idea behind the Zune is flawed. I can see Microsoft saying that people want Wi-Fi in their device, but it’s to order music, not share with others. From what I can tell, you can’t really order music on this thing, you can share it with others. That would be pretty stupid, and I would hope that I’m wrong on this (which I may be)

A couple things that Zune has going for it is the subscription model and the wider screen. I would like to see a subscription option for iTunes. That would make my life a little easier. Although I cloud also see the higher restriction on DRM make things a bit more complicated.

And as for the wider screen, we all know that’s just a matter of time. For Apple’s year end profits, I would hope that they will release this within the next 30 – 45 days. That would also give Microsoft a good solid kick to their nuts on the Zune launch. I at least hope Apple shows the “true” video iPod before the Zune launches, so as to take some wind from Microsoft’s sails.

Other than that, the Zune has nothing on the iPod. It looks like an ugly brick, it will have over complicated DRM issues, and of course…it’s Microsoft so it will break a lot.

I do like to offer constructive criticism, so here is what I think Microsoft should do. They should acquire Creative Labs and roll out Zune as the new Zen. Then they could have a good line up, and because of the recent lawsuit settlement, free reign to rip off the scroll wheel design. Of course no one listens to me.